|Berry & Bickers electoral map forecast|
Two professors who have a forecast model with an accuracy rate of 100% for the past 8 presidential elections believe that the next president will be named Mitt Romney.
Michael J. Berry, of the University of Colarado, Denver, and Kenneth N. Bickers, of the University of Colorado, Boulder, developed a forecast model based on various factors at state level, which has been successful in forecasting the votes per state in the past 8 elections:
|Berry & Bickers success record|
The Berry & Bickers Model shows that voters punish unemployment more harshly under Democrats than under Republicans:
While many forecast models are based on the popular vote, the Electoral College model developed by Bickers and Berry is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions.
In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors looked at per capita income, which indicates the extent to which people have more or less disposable income. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.
Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.
Interesting analysis, and very interesting model.
I bet there a gazillion progressive mathematicians who are burding the midnight oil to prove – in the next 2 to 3 weeks – that this time round the Berry & Bickers Model is just plain wrong.